United, Chelsea, Arsenal & Liverpool: Any Change?
With the new season looming ever closer, we’re fast approaching that time of year where everyone wants their say on who’ll come out on top from this year’s runners and riders, so to speak.
No surprises then that Mr Andy I-love-the-sound-of-my-own-voice Gray is one of the first to get his predictions for the new season in. According to the Sky ‘expert’, Manchester United will once again be the team to beat and he pretty much expects them to finish the season as Champions again. The former Rangers man still thinks it’ll be Chelsea chasing United all the way again, particularly with Scolari taking over the reins from the now hysterically historically forgotten Avram Grant, stating ‘The main threat to United will come from Chelsea with Big Phil Scolari in charge. I like the Brazilian and I am positive he will be able to bring the success he has enjoyed at international level to Stamford Bridge. He is an uncompromising sort of guy and he won’t be afraid to upset one or two big egos.”
The former Scotland striker goes on to suggest he isn’t particularly convinced by Chelsea’s signing of Deco, although believes the brakes being applied to Lampard’s move along with the acquisition of Bosingwa, are positive steps on Chelsea’s behalf. On Lampard, Gray says ‘I am delighted that Frank Lampard has decided to stay at Chelsea. The Premier League needs players of his calibre and as time goes on he will realise he has made the right decision.’ Whilst, on our new right-back he says ‘Jose Bosingwa is a terrific signing. I saw him play in the European Championships and I think he looks a very exciting player at right-back, a position which has been a problem area for Chelsea’ – he ain’t wrong there.
Is he wrong about the current Champions retaining their title though? Well, John Terry doesn’t appear to agree, or are his “Man United are at their peak” comments simply mind games? On their chances of a third successive Premier League title, Terry says “They have had two good years and you have to stand back and take your hat off to them, but we know we were good last year and we have another level to go to, last year I think we saw the very best of Man United, but we have got an awful lot to come from last year.”
Well, I’d have to agree we should be looking to improve on what was a pretty poor season by the standards we’d set ourselves – and yes, I realise we were runners up in both the league and the Champions League but I’m still of the opinion that the statistics flatter us. Not that it was all bad because we managed to remain unbeaten at home, stretching that particular record to 82 games. We also managed to win more away games than anyone else (13), but the problem for us seemed to come back to the myth about Stamford Bridge being a fortress, because whilst we weren’t actually losing at home, with 7 draws out of 19 games, it seemed a little easier for teams to come and pick up a point than it should’ve been.
United, on the other hand, won 17 of their 19 home games, with one defeat and one draw – so it doesn’t take a genius to do the maths. They also conceded just 7 goals in total and despite an amazing 24 goals in their last 8 games, could still add to that already potent ability to get goals with the possible signing of Dimitar Berbatov.
So personally, I’d have to say I’m not quite as confident as JT appears to be and with the Chelsea captain already having got last years prediction wrong with regards to United overturning a five point deficit, not to mention the barracking he’ll undoubtedly get over the Champions League, I hope he doesn’t live to regret his pre-season belief.
Anyway, on to Arsenal. Despite some time at the top of the table themselves last season, the Gunners still only finished in third place and this season they’ll be managing without the likes of Lehmann, Gilberto, Hleb and Flamini. Wenger’s transfer activity so far has consisted of Samir Nasri, Amaury Bischoff and Aaron Ramsey. But going back to our lovable pundit and Andy Gray reassuring informs us that despite some concerns over a lack of depth in the squad which may well have cost Arsenal the title last season, he’s certain that with Adebayor staying – who he believes will get them 20 to 30 goals, this shouldn’t be a problem. Gray confidently suggests “I don’t share their (fans) concerns. There’s not a lack of depth in the squad but they could do with a bit of experience in midfield.”
Looking at last season, Arsenal’s unbeaten home record saw them bettered only by Manchester United, notching up 47 points out of a possible 57, so the Emirates isn’t that happy a hunting ground for their opposition either. However, in similar style to Chelsea, Arsenal’s 17 wins and 6 draws leaves room for a bit of improvement in order to compete for the top spot. And this is where inexperience certainly played a part last season, with 3 successive draws at the Emirates between March and April costing them dearly. Therefore, irrespective of anything Mr Gray has said, I don’t think enough has changed over the summer for Arsenal to improve on last year’s position.
Finally on to Liverpool and someone Mr Gray didn’t seem to have an opinion of on this occasion. Obviously as far as they’re concerned, the signing of Robbie Keane clearly means this really is their year and with Gareth foot-in-the-mouth Barry also looking to head Anfield way in the not too distant future, as far as the cheeky-but-friendly scousers are concerned, it really is a foregone conclusion. Certainly, if you go back to the end of last season, a strong finish saw them unbeaten in their last 11 at Anfield, with 8 consecutive wins, although rather telling is the fact that their last league defeat was against the very same champions they’d like to displace. In fact, going back even further, and of the 2 defeats in the last 54 games at home, they won’t thank anyone for pointing out it was United that beat them on both occasions.
In terms of goals, even without Keane, Liverpool managed a pretty impressive 20 in that final push last season, conceding only 4, and actually hit the net in 21 of their last 23 league games at home. But yet again, it’s their failure within these statistics to score against the champions, and indeed the very fact that as consistent as they may be at Anfield, they continue to struggle against both United and Chelsea, that leads me to believe nothing will change when it comes to Liverpool’s final position at the end of the coming season.
Or maybe I’ll be eating my words by the time May comes around?
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As a Liverpool fan, I cant really disagree. The top 2 will be Man Utd and Chelsea (in any order) and 3rd and 4th will be Arsenal and Liverpool (in any order). Liverpool and Arsenal just havnt done enough to bridge the gap during the summer.
As a true LIverpool supporter, it wouldn’t surprise me if history would repeat itself and that the leagues ends the same in 2009 as it was in 2008. But i would hope that we will be a bit closer and maybe even snatch it from the Mancs. If we would have beaten the Mnacs twice last year we would have been ahead of them, so even 11 points difference is quite close. Apart from that, good blog and i am really looking forward to the new season
I must admit that I wonder what your words will taste like come May 2009?
Well the gap between Arsenal and United was 4 points. What was it for Pool?
As a arsenal fan I am very excited about arsenals chances this year and people forget that we still have rosicky and RVP and if they can stay fit i honestly do not see y we cannot win the leaque this season
This is all well and good and I agree with nearly evertyhing here. Mind you, I don’t think Utd will be as prolific this season, Chelsea can only improve as will Liverpool. Arsenal are the joker in this pack, I’m not worried about the squad but when the going gets tough, well, I think they’re a bit short on “leaders”. If Liverpool do manage to get the better of Chelsea and ManU, then it really will be our season!
Though i am Arsenal fan i think your comments are well balanced and realistic…keep up the good work
RVP, Rosicky and Eduardo coming back will provide the experience for Arsenal that we lacked towards the end of last season.
You can’t just say Arsenal are inexperienced every year. Yes Lehmann and Gilberto left but they were both past it and Hleb was a good player but we have Nasri to replace him. Flamini was the biggest loss but hopefully someone can step up like he did last season.
Arsenal promote from within every year, this year we’ve got Vela back and we’ll have some reserves players like Manonne and Wilshere coming up, in addition to the signings.
RVP, Rosicky and Eduardo coming back will provide the experience for Arsenal that we lacked towards the end of last season.
You can’t just say Arsenal are inexperienced every year. Yes Lehmann and Gilberto left but they were both past it and Hleb was a good player but we have Nasri to replace him. Flamini was the biggest loss but hopefully someone can step up like he did last season.
Arsenal promote from within every year, this year we’ve got Vela back and we’ll have some reserves players like Manonne and Wilshere coming up, in addition to the signings.
I’m an Arsenal fan and I think this is one of the most rational analyses of the top four and relative strengths that I’ve read.
How did you ever fall into the clutches of Chelsea?
I’m thinking that in a race as close as this figures to be, United may stumble a bit at the start with Ronaldo and now Rooney missing out. They’re still formidable, certainly, but believe it or not I think Fergie might be a negative this time. For all his huffing and puffing, the Grinch of Old Trafford — who truly does hold that bunch together — wasn’t all THAT combative over Ronaldo and having won the big double last season, I sense that while he may say or even scream otherwise, some of Fergie’s fire is spent. And United will take a massive step back without him — or without his true fire.
Chelsea should be a legitimate favorite, but I base it on the players more than Scolari — who surely will take some time to adapt in England. He’s got a fantastic resume, but this is the toughest league in the world, it’s markedly different than any other and Phil’s not at his most comfy in an English-speaking environment.
You’ve got boatloads of talent, though, as long as all those egos and central mids don’t bump into each other.
I think Liverpool will flatter to deceive again — there’s something in Rafa’s DNA about the Premiership’s 38 games non-stop. Instead of totating too much, this year he’ll probably overcompensate and wear out the whole bunch.
As for Arsenal, somebody used the word “joker” and that’s fair. This could be a fantastic young team, and people forget that if it weren’t for desperately bad luck this same basic group would have won it last year.
Now they’re a year older, hopefully Rosicky and Eduardo will be back, they’ll score buckets of goals and…
It’s up to the defence. Arsenal’s weakness at the business end of last season (besides so many injuries) was the habit of conceding silly goals at awful times. Part of it, to be honest, was the sainted Flamini’s habit of chasing the ball all over the park and occasionally getting his team caught in a horrible spot.
For all of that, the Gunners vastly outplayed United at OT and should have won the game instead of losing 2-1.
Flip that around and the title would in N5.
Still, the problem remains that Arsenal’s depth is young depth, and that’s rolling the dice.
I’ll pick it Chelsea, Arsenal, United and Liverpool in that order — but just like last year, one key injury could turn the thing on its head.
California Steve – I didnt fall into Chelsea’s clutches, sometimes youre upbringing just dictates stuff for you, lol.
Julian – certainly, psychologically Chelsea have plenty of room to improve on last season, physically though, I can’t see it. Liverpool, might have a little more to offer with both Keane and Barry, although I’m with California Steve on this one, I don’t think Rafa’s got what it takes. As for United not being as prolific, I fail to see how, having gained experience last season, the talent they’ve got won’t just improve – young, hungry players, a decent sprinkling of experince and a manager determined to keep winning until the day he retires – deadly combination imo. As for Arsenal, I don’t think they’ve added enough to improve on last season.